The Nature of The OPFOR...KNOWING YOUR ENEMY and YOURSELF...

In the book 'The Art of War' the Strategist and author Sun Tzu writes... "Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose..."

One such calculation was that it is vital and important for success to 'KNOW YOUR ENEMY'...

The greatest failing of the forces and powers behind the COLOUR REVOLUTION (policy of regime change) in Zimbabwe is their wholesale contempt for and total underestimation of the OPFOR regime.

Losses thus far suffered are a direct result of a form of paternalistic arrogance that leads directly to the present state of strategic blindness and tactical incompetence that characterizes much of the opposition leaderships dealings with the OPFOR at the expense of the ordinary people .

As much as theZIMBABWEinsurgency may dislike the corrupt nature of the OPFOR regime to the point of seeking genuine change or accepting death as the price of failure; as we seek a new progressive Zimbabwe.
We give all due respect the OPFOR establishment machine (economic, political, social, security) as worthy and skillful opponents and constantly seek to understand the capitalist and Maoist guerrilla traditions that underpin their actions.

Thus we are at all times fully aware of the dangerous nature of the OPFOR and the various inputs and levels of their supporters and allies.

The African Continent has experienced substantial conflict related to the legitimacy of political communities.

Pressures from within (issues of wealth distribution, ethno-cultural distribution...) often exacerbated by outside influences create conditions where questions regarding legitimacy are raised.
Discord over the control and make up of the political / economic system can result when the ideals of pluralism become supplanted by the reality of autocracy.

Within the Autocratic system, the decision making process is centered upon satisfying the interests of a small group; individuals or groups feel they have an exclusive right to 'rule'. Government is marked by limited institutional development. Government becomes self serving, impersonal and bureaucratic.
The leaders use a complex network involving the media, the educational system, state organized social / political groups to carry out their control ambitions.

The political structure evolves into a closed hierachy with a president, military officer or similar figure at the top.
The leader functions as a patron who dispenses favours to sections of the military and bureaucracy in return for their support.
While the state may control or even own more economic enterprises, a good deal of regulated private activity is permitted.
Groups meant to be neutral such as the military, judiciary etc. provide support for the regime and in return some sections gain socioeconomic status and privilege.

Local leaders are left to control affairs at the lowest levels while an elite governs at the national level of policy making, building centralized State power is the highest value of the system.

The vanguard party claims to represent 'the people'; the while general public is expected to be either apathetic or loyal.


Within such a complex situation it does not pay to be partisan or blind to the whole picture. Several OPFOR policies and arguments have some merit, the issue is the destructive nature of their application and the inability of the OPFOR regime to allow GENUINE political RENEWAL in any form which is the truest entitlement of any 'free' country.

The illegitimate nature of the OPFOR regime, stems from the fact that their behaviour is inconsistent with their stated rhetoric and the universal values associated with national liberation struggles. As stated the OPFOR regime has become ineffective and repressive.
Thus the system needs a process of whole scale renewal changing the culture from the root upwards, not merely the dictatorial figureheads at the top.

The analyst must depict things as they are in an unbiased way, regardless of feelings, or hopes, or misgivings. Address the real issues and come to terms with the counterproductive aspects of not owning fears and prejudices.

It was folly to ever believe that a proper assessment of the OPFOR regime, its make up (internal and external networks), security and psychology was unnecessary; that all that was needed was the application of the usual pattern of COLOUR REVOLUTION template, the orchestrated economic chaos, the hired opposition, using ordinary people as cannon fodder, the casting of the OPFOR in the role of global villain and bombarding the world with anti OPFOR and pro-OPPOSITION propaganda, HOPING THAT NO DEEPER ANALYSIS WOULD BE DONE REGARDING THE NEO-LIBERAL CHANGE AGENDA.

The failure to see the fundamental point of KNOWING YOUR ENEMY as important, meant that the question was never asked.... 'what kind of opponent are we dealing with in relation to the OPFOR regime and what of its allies'... When seeking to understand an insurgency, even if it takes the form of a dictatorship, it is essential to ascertain first what types of insurgents one is dealing with through careful examination of their true and stated goals, and the means they are using to attain those goals...This does not merely have an academic importance and value, but vital practical implications in relation to the success or failure of the change project.

Once the type of insurgency and forms of warfare have been identified, the next step is to address the variousstrategic and tactical approaches that the insurgents adopt to maximize their effectiveness in their quest for 'victory'.

The strategies vary as to the relative importance of six variables: environment, popular support, organizaton, unity,external support, and the responses of any opposition.

What is important here is the truth, the corruption that started this whole mess began when the very first official lies were sanctioned and faulty methods were allowed to pass having never being subjected to any honest criticism.

Indeed POLITICS IS A DIRTY GAME, however only along a path of honesty can Zimbabweans gain the salvation of the country, sadly many people get it wrong because they insist on confusing a political creature who survives via pure calculation ....in the name of retaining power...with normal human beings who exist using rationality, forgetting that power carries with it an addictive quality that forgoes all rationale.

Analyzing the OPFOR

An accurate assessment of the OPFOR can be made by viewing it as it sees itself, that is as a Nationalist guerrilla movement now fighting a new liberation war. Against outside powers and their satellites.

Within the counter insurgency framework the regime falls into the Third and seventh type of insurgent movement categories 'TRADITIONALIST' and 'PRESERVATIONIST'. (Insurgency & Terrorism)

*(note the analysis here is flexible and can be added to)

TRADITIONALIST INSURGENTS

Traditionalist insurgents seek to displace the political system, but the values they articulate are primordial....rooted in ancestral ties. The political structures they seek to establish are characterized by limited or guided participation and low autonomy, with political power in the hands of an autocratic leader supported by the upper class, some clergy and the army.

While the majority of the population may enjoy some autonomy at the local level, widespread participation in national politics, especially by organized opposition groups, is discouraged. Within the catagory of traditionalist insurgents one also finds some groups seeking to reestablish an ancient political system that they idealize as a golden age. Leaders are not 'facilitators' but become more akin to 'political kings'.

PRESERVATIONIST INSURGENTS

Insurgents in this category differ from all the others because they are essentially orientated toward maintaining the status quo because of the relative political, economic and social privileges they derive from it. PRESERVATIONIST INSURGENTS seek to maintain the existing political system and policies by engaging in illegal acts of violence against non-ruling groups and all others who are trying to effect change.

Right-wing death squads / gangs which are not officially sanctioned by yet have ties to the ruling political authorities fall under this category. Those connected with the authorities are considered state-sponsored terrorists rather than insurgents.